PORT ADELAIDE’s Ollie Wines will become the club’s first Brownlow medallist on Sunday night, if Champion Data is to be trusted.
The sports data specialist has picked Wines to be a clear winner, using nine years of polling history and feeding his player match statistics into a neutral network.
And it has a good record, with its data correctly forecasting five of the past six winners of the award.
Champion Data’s Brownlow Predictor breaks the six available votes from any one game (3-2-1) into smaller increments, allocating players scores between 0 and three including decimal points.
It measures statistics including ranking points, disposals, hit-outs, clearances, inside 50s, tackles, and contested possessions, as well as the result and final margin for the player’s team. Adjustments are also made for player polling history.
The tracker has Wines on 30.5 votes, well clear of St Kilda captain Jack Steele (24.6 votes) and Western Bulldogs onballer Jack Macrae (24.5 votes).
Fellow Port Adelaide midfielder Travis Boak is expected to rank 14th with 18.4 votes by Champion Data.
Rank |
Player |
Predicted votes |
1 |
Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) |
30.48 |
2 |
Jack Steele (St Kilda) |
24.63 |
3 |
Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs) |
24.48 |
4 |
Christian Petracca (Melbourne) |
23.66 |
5 |
Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) |
23.41 |
Wines polled only 10 Brownlow Medal votes to finish equal-20th in last year’s count but has taken his game to another level this season.
The Port Adelaide vice-captain averaged career-high numbers during the regular season including 32.1 disposals, six clearances, 5.2 inside 50s, 443 metres gained and 6.4 score.
He also recorded a career-high 43 disposals twice in 2021.
The 26-year-old midfield bull started the season at Brownlow Medal odds of $81, but has moved to become a $2.75 favourite.
Interestingly, the second favourite with the bookies, Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver is not predicted by Champion Data to even finish in the top five.
For all the data, it will come down to who the umpires award the votes to.
The Brownlow Medal will be presented in Perth on Sunday night.