Andrew Fuss has been keeping track of the Power’s Brownlow chances in 2014 and has gone through week-by-week to look where Gray – and his teammates – could poll votes.
The result – Robbie Gray will poll 28 votes.
This tally would be enough to win 10 of the past 20 Brownlow Medals. To get these votes, according to our predictions, he’d need to poll in 16 games – which would be a record for the Brownlow Medal.
The coaches believe he’s good enough, giving him votes in 18 of 22 games this year to win the AFL Coaches Association Award ahead of Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe. His own coach put his opinion on record on Saturday night.
“If people who are controlling the game have got good vision … we'll see probably an interesting result Monday night, because he (Gray) was clearly the best player in the competition this year,” Ken Hinkley said after the Power’s Preliminary Final loss to the Hawks.
But does he do enough to catches the umpires’ eye?
Historically, no.
Gray hasn’t polled a single Brownlow vote since Round 23, 2011 when he booted 6 goals against Essendon. In fact, he has just 15 Brownlow votes for his entire career.
He’ll likely need to near double that career tally for him to have any chance of outdoing Brownlow fancies Gary Ablett and Joel Selwood.
In Gray’s favour is the fact the 2014 count is expected to be slightly lower than in previous years. AFL.com.au’s Brownlow predictor has Selwood winning on 23 votes.
And don’t be discouraged if Gray appears out of it early – he will come home with a wet sail.
Our predictions have Gray polling 10 votes in the final four rounds – though that could easily be 12. So if our man is within 10 votes of the leader with four rounds to go – don’t lose faith!
Whatever happens tonight, no one can doubt the quality of Gray’s year. It’s been a pleasure to watch, and to think that just two and a half years ago he was stretchered off the ground against Collingwood with a terrible knee injury, it’s easy to be excited about what’s still to come.
2014 Brownlow Medal - portadelaidefc.com.au predicted votes
28 - Robbie Gray (1,1,1,2,2,1,3,1,1,1,2,2,3,2,3,2)
15 - Travis Boak (3,3,3,3,3)
12 - Hamish Hartlett (3,2,2,3,2)
8 – Brad Ebert (3,1,2,2)
5 - Jay Schulz (2,3), Chad Wingard (1,3,1), Ollie Wines (3,2)
4 – Jared Polec (3,1)
2 – Kane Cornes (2), Justin Westhoff (2)
1 – Jasper Pittard (1)
Round 1 v Carlton
3 – Ollie Wines (PA)
2 – Justin Westhoff (PA)
1 – Robbie Gray (PA)
Ollie Wines showed no signs of the second year blues, dominating in the first game of the year with 28 touches, 11 clearances, 9 tackles and 2 goals. He should get the 3 votes. Westhoff was unstoppable with 20 disposals and 5 goals and would be the main competition for 3. Jared Polec and Robbie Gray are likely to battle it out for the 1 vote.
Round 2 v Adelaide
3 – Hamish Hartlett (PA)
2 – Brad Ebert (PA)
1 – Chad Wingard (PA)
Hamish Hartlett (29 disposals, 4 clearances and a goal) won the Showdown Medal and will poll the 3 votes. Ebert (21 disposals, 9 tackles) and Chad Wingard (17 disposals and 4 goals) are the other likely vote-getters. Cornes (33 disposals), Schulz (10 marks, 3 goals) and Polec (20 disposals, 10 bounces, 5 inside 50s) could also come into contention.
Round 3 v North Melbourne
3 – Ben Cunnington (NM)
2 – Brent Harvey (NM)
1 – Levi Greenwood (NM)
Cunnington (30 disposals and 9 clearances) and Greenwood (34 disposals and 6 clearances) dominated in close for the Roos while Harvey sparked their comeback with 23 disposals and 3 goals. Hartlett (21 disposals and 2 big goals) and Boak (29 disposals) are the most likely vote-getters for the Power, but don’t be surprised if it’s a North Melbourne clean sweep.
Round 4 v Brisbane
3 – Travis Boak (PA)
2 – Jay Schulz (PA)
1 – Brad Ebert (PA)
Boak is a lock for the 3 votes in this game. 41 disposals, 16 contested, 8 clearances, 6 inside 50s and a goal in a 113-point win. Dominant. The other votes could go to any number of players. Schulz booted 7 goals – but 4 of them were in the final quarter when the game was over. Cornes was huge with 38 disposals, Ebert had 35 and 8 tackles and Gray had 29 touches and 2.4.
Round 5 v West Coast
3 – Brad Ebert (PA)
2 – Jack Darling (WCE)
1 – Robbie Gray (PA)
Ebert and Gray are likely to battle it out for the votes in this one. Ebert had 26 disposals, 10 marks and 2 goals against his old side and would be the favourite to take the 3 votes. Gray could well take the 2 votes with 24 disposals, 5 clearances and 2 goals, but Jack Darling’s influence on the game was huge – 19 disposals, 8 marks, 8 inside 50s and 3 goals. Priddis (33 disposals and 5 clearances) and Polec (27 disposals and 5 inside 50s) could also poll.
Round 6 v Geelong
3 – Travis Boak (PA)
2 – Kane Cornes (PA)
1 – Robbie Gray
Boak won the Badcoe Medal for best on ground and will again poll the 3 votes with 32 disposals, 9 clearances and 2 goals. Cornes had 33 touches and also restricted Selwood to 17 disposals, but the veteran is not a proven vote-getter. Hartlett (29 disposals and 2 goals), Ebert (28 disposals and 7 clearances), Lobbe (32 hitouts) and Gray (20 disposals, 10 marks and 2 goals) are also chances to poll.
Round 7 v GWS
3 – Jared Polec (PA)
2 – Robbie Gray (PA)
1 – Callan Ward (GWS)
New recruit Polec continued his sensational start to the year with a best on ground performance in Canberra. 30 disposals, 9 inside 50s and 3 goals should be enough to secure him the 3 votes. Gray was outstanding with 30 touches, 14 contested, 7 clearances and a goal but will face stiff competition for votes from Callan Ward, who had 40 disposals and 10 clearances. Wines and White also impressed.
Round 8 v Fremantle
3 – Chad Wingard (PA)
2 – Robbie Gray (PA)
1 – Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)
Wingard turned the match on its head, leading the Power in a final quarter surge with 5 goals for the game. He should pick up the 3 votes. Gray was huge in the second half and also vital to the Power’s turnaround – racking up 30 disposals, 6 clearances and 6 inside 50s. Fyfe’s 34 disposals, 6 clearances and 2 goals will have him right in contention for 1 or 2 votes. Boak and Wines the next best chances for votes for the Power.
Round 10 v Hawthorn
3 – Travis Boak (PA)
2 – Jordan Lewis (Haw)
1 – Jared Polec (PA)
Another best-on-ground performance from Boak should earn him the 3 votes. Hawthorn’s Jordan Lewis (38 disposals, 9 clearances and 2 goals) will push for 2 votes while Ebert (28 disposals) and Polec (26 disposals and 1 goal) will battle for 1 vote.
Round 11 v Melbourne
3 – Travis Boak (PA)
2 – Dom Tyson (Melb)
1 – Robbie Gray (PA)
These votes could go anywhere. Boak (28 disposals), Gray (25 disposals and 2 goals), Tyson and Jones (both 30 touches) could all pinch the 3 votes. Westhoff (20 disposals and 2 goals) could also snare a vote.
Round 12 v St Kilda
3 – Robbie Gray (PA)
2 – Hamish Hartlett (PA)
1 – Chad Wingard (PA)
Hartlett had a career-high 36 disposals, but Robbie Gray is expected to steal the 3 votes with 25 touches and 4 goals in an all-around performance. Lobbe had 43 hitouts while Wingard finished with 23 disposals and 3 goals – as well as a Mark of the Year contender.
Round 13 v Sydney
3 – Lance Franklin (Syd)
2 – Brad Ebert (PA)
1 – Robbie Gray (PA)
Buddy won the game off his own boot and is a lock for the 3 votes. Ebert was outstanding with 40 touches, 9 clearances and 8 inside 50s while Gray had 35 touches and 10 clearances. These two are likely to round out the votes, but Kieran Jack and Jarrad McVeigh will also come into contention.
Round 14 v Western Bulldogs
3 – Jay Schulz (PA)
2 – Ollie Wines (PA)
1 – Robbie Gray (PA)
Schulz had a day out with 22 touches, 14 marks and 8 goals and will certainly take the 3 votes. Wines (30 disposals and 11 clearances), Boak (30 disposals and 2 goals), Westhoff (25 disposals, 10 marks and 3 goals) and Gray (28 disposals and 9 clearances) will battle it out for the other votes.
Round 15 v Adelaide
3 – Sam Jacobs (Adel)
2 – Patrick Dangerfield (Adel)
1 – Eddie Betts (Adel)
Jacobs, Dangerfield and Betts are expected to get a clean sweep of the votes. The Power’s best chance at a vote will be Travis Boak with 33 touches and 10 clearances.
Round 16 v Essendon
3 – David Zaharakis (Ess)
2 – Robbie Gray (PA)
1 – Jason Winderlich (Ess)
Zaharakis (30 disposals and 7 tackles) was excellent, but Gray (30 disposals, 4 clearances and a goal) and Hartlett (29 disposals and 8 clearances) were very good for the Power, meaning the votes could go any number of ways.
Round 17 v Richmond
3 – Travis Boak (PA)
2 – Trent Cotchin (Rich)
1 – Brett Deledio (Rich)
Despite the loss, Boak was close to best on ground with 39 disposals, 8 clearances, 6 tackles, 5 inside 50s and a goal. Miles (28 disposals, 8 clearances), Deledio (26 disposals, 10 inside 50s, 7 clearances) and Cotchin (26 disposals and 8 clearances) will compete with Boak for votes.
Round 18 v Melbourne
3 – Dom Tyson (Melb)
2 – Robbie Gray (PA)
1 – Nathan Jones (Melb)
A narrow win over the Demons in Dom Cassisi’s final game, but Melbourne’s Dom Tyson (32 disposals, 2 goals) and Nathan Jones (31 disposals, 8 clearances) were arguably the two best on ground. Robbie Gray’s 26 disposals, 8 clearances and 3 goal assists might just pip Ollie Wines (26 disposals, 7 clearances) for the votes.
Round 19 v Collingwood
3 – Dayne Beams (Coll)
2 – Hamish Hartlett (PA)
1 – Scott Pendlebury (Coll)
Beams (32 disposals, 10 clearances, 7 tackles and 6 inside 50s) set up the win and deserves the 3 votes. Hartlett (23 disposals and 4 goals) and Pendlebury (27 disposals and 4 clearances) will battle it out for the other votes.
Round 20 v Sydney
3 – Robbie Gray (PA)
2 – Josh Kennedy (Syd)
1 – Ben McGlynn (Syd)
The 26-point loss didn’t reflect how close the game was and Robbie Gray will still likely poll 2 or 3 votes for his 37 disposals, 12 clearances and 6 tackles. Boak (31 disposals, 6 clearances and 2 goals) is the only other Power player a chance to poll. Josh Kennedy (34 disposals, 5 clearances and 9 inside 50s) and Ben McGlynn (21 disposals and 3 goals) are likely to poll for the Swans.
Round 21 v Gold Coast
3 – Hamish Hartlett (PA)
2 – Robbie Gray (PA)
1 – Harley Bennell (GC)
There are probably five players – Gray, Hartlett, Lobbe, Prestia and Bennell – in the mix for votes from the Power’s narrow win in the wet at Metricon Stadium. Gray looked like he was the only one playing in dry weather, while others struggled with the greasy conditions. He finished with 26 disposals – 20 of them contested – to go with 11 inside 50s, 9 clearances and a goal. Hartlett had a big influence too, with 24 disposals and a goal and was considered by many the best on ground. Lobbe had 56 hitotus, 7 clearances and 12 tackles while Bennell (27 disposals, 2 goals) and Prestia (26 disposals, 10 clearances, 9 tackles) also impressed.
Round 22 v Carlton
3 – Robbie Gray (PA)
2 – Hamish Hartlett (PA)
1 – Jasper Pittard (PA)
Lock it in – Robbie Gray has the 3 votes for this Friday night thrashing. 31 disposals, 7 clearances and 4.2 for Gray as his Brownlow odds plummeted. Hartlett (27 disposals, 1 goal), Boak (27 disposals, 9 clearances) and Pittard (23 disposals, 12 bounces, 7 rebound 50s) are the other players likely to poll.
Round 23 v Fremantle
3 – Lachie Neale (Freo)
2 – Robbie Gray (PA)
1 – Hayden Ballantyne (Freo)
Lachie Neale (34 disposals, 17 contested, 6 clearances) is likely to get the 3 votes, but Robbie Gray (33 disposals, 9 clearances and 2.3) could easily pinch the 3. Schulz booted 6, while Westhoff had 23 disposals, 12 marks and 9 inside 50s and are the Power’s other chances for votes. Ballantyne (4 goals) and Barlow (27 disposals) are good chances to poll for Freo.
