BE it by forecasting the winners on the AFL ladder predictor - and good luck with that - or looking at the more scientific analysis from the number crunchers at Champion Data and their rivals, the race to September is intense.

Again, the "magic number" in wins needed to qualify for the top-eight finals appears to be 13 (from 23 home-and-away games).

Then there is the question of ranking the top eight by percentage where there is a tie on premiership points - and this season, one of the tightest races ever as Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley noted last week, the numbers after the decimal point could be decisive in settling every position among the current contenders from Carlton in second to Hawthorn at 13th.

Inside the ultimate top eight, the football mathematics will determine critical advantages such as the double-chance in the top-four qualifying finals; and home-field rights for eight games during the month-long major round.

Today, and since the first VFL finals series in 1897, the tie-breaker formula has been percentage (that in 1897 split Geelong and Essendon after they completed the equitable 14-round home-and-away series with 11-3 win-loss records and percentages of 183.8 and 158.7 respectively).

Season 2024 could become as "congested" as 2016, the first year with the pre-finals bye. Percentage rewarded Sydney with the minor premiership ahead of Geelong and Hawthorn - 161.2 to 143.6 to 118.6 after each had 17-5 win-loss records. 

Same script settled the next three rankings after Greater Western Sydney, Adelaide and West Coast had 16-6 records and percentages of 143.1, 138.3 and 130 respectively.

The most-dramatic finish - with percentage settling the final eight - came the following season. Essendon, West Coast and Melbourne were split from seventh and ninth by the last column on the premiership table. Essendon, 106.5; West Coast, 105.7 and Melbourne, 105.2.

For those needing a memory refresher: Before the last home-and-away series, Melbourne was seventh and lost to non-finalist Collingwood by 16 points on a Saturday afternoon at the MCG. Essendon and West Coast played on the Sunday knowing exactly the scores needed to play finals. Essendon beat non-finalist Fremantle by 15 points at the Docklands to rise from eighth to seventh; West Coast completed the minor round with a 29-point win against minor premier Adelaide at Subiaco Oval in Perth to jump from ninth to eighth, tipping out Melbourne by 0.4517278 percentage points.

Percentage in the AFL competition effectively measures average winning margins - total score divided by scores conceded.

In 22 games, West Coast scored less than Melbourne (1964 to 2035) but also conceded less (1858 to 1934). Melbourne scored more goals - 302 to West Coast's 288. Some leagues would reward Melbourne for such attacking themes.

Is this fallback to percentage the fairest way to settle the race to September? More so when - unlike in 1897 - there is no equitable draw of all 18 national league teams playing their rivals twice, once home and once away? And those double-up games in the current AFL are never of equality, particularly if percentage - as has been noted - can be boosted by playing the bottom-four teams twice.

In 2017, West Coast and Melbourne played each other just once - at Subiaco Oval in Perth in round 14 in late June. Melbourne won - on the road - by three points. In some competitions, this head-to-head result would have settled which of the two teams advanced to the next stage of the competition.

This incredibly cutting way of settling eighth spot on the mathematics of percentage points brings up the annual chestnut of whether the AFL should replace the pre-finals bye - and keep "momentum" building to September - with a wildcard weekend.

In 2017, seventh-placed Essendon would have needed to justify its finals qualification by beating the 10th-ranked Western Bulldogs that had missed the top eight by a win (44 premiership points to 48). West Coast would have hosted Melbourne (again) in Perth for the tiebreaker play-off for eighth spot.

For the record, the Western Bulldogs beat Essendon in their only meeting that season - in late July at the Docklands - by 30 points.

Deciding a finals berth by a full act of football seems more appropriate than hoping the numbers crunch in your favour on a calculator, particularly when the AFL fixture is so not true to the league's ideals of equality.

And in 2024 with the mad scramble for spots between the second and eighth invitations to September's finals series, the question of finding the right tiebreaker model - other than percentage - might take on grander significance.