INCREDIBLY, Port Adelaide could play any of seven opponents in the first week of finals, such is the uncertainty of the final eight heading into this weekend's Round 23.

While the Power is now a confirmed finallist, Saturday night's game against Gold Coast remains crucially important.

Aside from simply winning the game, the Power must also beat a 'phantom' rival - Sydney - as well. 

Why?

Because if the Tigers lose to St Kilda on Sunday, one of either Port or Sydney will take fourth spot on the ladder. 

And if the Tigers lose, a facinating battle is unfolding beneath the Power for the final positions in the top eight.

Brew yourself a cuppa, because we're about to go through every single one.

The Double Chance outcome won't be known till Sunday. That's when Richmond goes head-to-head with St Kilda.

For Richmond to finish fourth...

  • They need only defeat or draw with St Kilda or;
  • Richmond lose to St Kilda and both Port Adelaide and Sydney lose as well.

For Port to finish fourth...

  • Richmond must lose to St Kilda on Sunday, and;
    • Port Adelaide defeats Gold Coast and Sydney loses to Carlton, or.
    • Port Adelaide defeats Gold Coast and Sydney defeats Carlton, and the Power's margin over the Suns is no fewer than seven points less than Sydney's win over the Blues. This is an approximate score, with Port's leeway reducing depending on the size of Sydney's winning margin. E.g.
      • If Sydney wins by 10 points, Port must win by at least 3 points.
      • If Sydney wins by 50 points, Port must win by at least 43 points.
      • If Sydney wins by 100 points, Port must win by at least 97 points.
      • If Sydney wins by 200 points, Port must win by at least 198 points. 
    • In the event Sydney and Port tie on percentage, points for will be the deciding factor (which Port has a clear advantage in)

In the event Port Adelaide plays an elimination final in Week 1 of the finals, there are five teams it could find itself fronting.

If Port Adelaide finishes fifth or sixth...

The Power will play a home elimination final against any of Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, St Kilda or, even, the Western Bulldogs. We go through each likelihood.

Melbourne and Essendon

The Dees and Dons have the best percentage of the potential five (currently 106.3 and 106% respectively). If the Demons beat Collingwood and Essendon knock off Fremantle, their finishing positions will be either seventh or eight and will, in all likelihood, lock out the other contenders.

West Coast

The Eagles, on 104.3% and 11 wins, can jump into the top eight if they knock off the league-leading Crows at Domain Stadium. This would seem one of the most unlikely scenarios as this stage of the season. 

St Kilda

To enter the top eight, the Saints will need to pull off a mammoth win over the Tigers and have other results fall their way. How realistic is it for St Kilda? This is what needs to happen:

  • Fremantle needs to defeat Essendon.
  • Adelaide needs to defeat West Coast.
  • And then the Saints need to defeat Richmond.

There are a few variations on this scenario. If West Coast defeat Adelaide, the Saints will technically be able to make the finals, but only with a mammoth victory (of close to 100 points). If Essendon defeat the Dockers, the Saints would need to win by an impossibly high margin.

Western Bulldogs 

The least likely of the contenders based on percentage, the Bulldogs can make the eight if:

  • They defeat Hawthorn in the first game of the weekend and;
  • All of Essendon, West Coast and St Kilda lose.

There are variations based on Essendon losing and West Coast and St Kilda winning, but the Bulldogs need to win by a substantial enough margin to overhaul the Eagles' and Saints' percentage. 

If Port Adelaide finishes fourth...

Whoever finishes fourth will play either Adelaide or the GWS Giants, depending on the fall of results. 

Right now, the Crows are two premiership points ahead of the Giants. 

If GWS defeats the Cats on Saturday night, they will temporarily take top spot.

That will leave it to the Crows to defeat - or draw - with the Eagles on Sunday to jump back to first place and take the minor premiership. 

 

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