"YOU don't want to peak too early," said the man outside the Festival Centre as a parting message to his apprehensive mate walking to Adelaide Oval for Port Adelaide's first-half closer against Fremantle on Sunday.
Everyone is trying to measure Port Adelaide's form from the first 11 games of a highly competitive home-and-away series.
In the most basic terms, Port Adelaide has:
WON eight, lost three.
BEATEN defending champion Richmond (still a genuine measuring stick).
SCORED the other seven wins against bottom-10 clubs (meaning Port Adelaide has consistently proven itself better than the pretenders in the pack; the emphasis is on consistency).
LOST three times to fellow top-eight sides (early pacesetter Western Bulldogs at home and to West Coast and Brisbane on the road).
SCORED 141.111 (accuracy rate 56 per cent) to rank seventh on the attacking chart.
CONCEDED 109.122 - an average 71 points a match, the best defensive count in the club's AFL story (beating the 75-point count in 2017) for matches running to a 20-minute clock during quarters.
RANKS fifth by premiership points - and fifth by percentage that the legendary Malcolm Blight regards as the true pointer.
And what does this all mean?
Senior coach Ken Hinkley summed it up pretty well after the 19-point loss to the Western Bulldogs on May 15:
"We're good. We're not great yet."
At 8-3, after a first-half run that has delivered seemingly endless injuries, labels such as "flat-track bullies" and questions on slow starts, Port Adelaide appears a genuine top-eight finalist capable of pushing and achieving a top-four finish. This was once goal. But today, Port Adelaide lives to higher expectations of chasing greatness - premierships.
"We’re certainly satisfied," says Hinkley of the 8-3 start that is Port Adelaide's best first-half count (for a 22-game home-and-away series) since the 10-1 of 2014.
"I’m ever the optimist and I’d love to be 11-0, but we’ve put ourselves in the upper echelon of the ladder. We know we’re chasing a big finish, but at 8-3 you couldn’t be displeased with the way we’ve got there.
"Like every team we’ve dealt with some injuries along the way … hopefully we’ll get some personnel back as the year goes on and that will hold us in good stead."
Everyone looks for omens during a football season.
In 2004, the breakthrough premiership season, Port Adelaide was ranked fifth (as today) with a 7-4 win-loss count that included losses to West Coast and Brisbane on the road. Make what you will of this.
And in 2016 - a season that proved the point that it is not worth peaking early - the eventual premier, the drought-breaking Western Bulldogs, were fourth by percentage with an 8-3 record and had a 3-2 count against teams in the top eight at the halfway mark. And then they achieved greatness from seventh spot (15-7) by a remarkable month of football.
THE GOOD
ROUND 4 (April 9, Adelaide Oval).
There was a fair bit on the agenda. Port Adelaide needed to respond to the 37-point loss to West Coast in Perth the previous week - and to deal with the skeleton of the six-point loss to eventual champion Richmond in a home preliminary final six months earlier.
The two-point win was sealed by Robbie Gray scoring a goal and protecting the goalfront in the final minutes. It also was costly with the long-term injuries to midfield tyros Zak Butters (ankle and knee) and Xavier Duursma (knee).
THE BAD
TAKE your pick - the 37-point loss to West Coast in Perth in round 3 or the 49-point collapse to Brisbane at the Gabba in round 7?
The key points from these very similar losses were the false starts and the inferior count on contested possessions and damage at stoppages.
THE STAR
LET the numbers do the talking for vice-captain Ollie Wines:
DISPOSALS: Career-best average of 31.27 (up from 25.25 in 2019 when there also were 20-minute quarters).
CONTESTED: Career-best average of 13.82 (slightly better than 2018 figures).
Wines has found his niche.
"At times I have probably wanted to be the silky midfielder that weaves through packs and does that kind of stuff. But in reality that is not me," Wines said last month.
"I have got to be inside the contest, I have got to get the ball out to the guys ... it's something that I am really comfortable with now."
BIG TICK
LIST manager Jason Cripps certainly picked off a winner during last year's trade period by claiming Aliir Aliir from Sydney to answer a need for height and intercepting power in the Port Adelaide defence.
But there is now a late challenger in this category from the first half of the home-and-away campaign - fellow defender Trent McKenzie. Fifth in the John Cahill Medal club champion count last year, McKenzie was unsettled by injury during the pre-season and then fell behind the Aliir-Tom Clurey-Tom Jonas mix for tall defenders.
Once called up to cover the loss of Clurey (broken jaw), McKenzie has delivered the template for close-checking defenders and for perfect spoils in an era when umpires are whistle-strong in marking contests. McKenzie's shutdown of Collingwood threat Jordan De Goey at the MCG in round 10 - his first AFL game this season - was exceptional.
TO STEP UP
WHILE Port Adelaide's defence is rewriting the record books, the Port Adelaide key forwards have some work to do in the second half of the season.
All-Australian Charlie Dixon (18 goals, second behind the 19 of Essendon recruit Orazio Fantasia), Todd Marshall (12) and the Rising Star double nominee Mitch Georgiades (17) will not lack the faith of senior coach Ken Hinkley.
"We think they are going to keep getting better together, so keeping them together is important," Hinkley says with a caveat: "But they still have to play well to stay in the side."
THE FUTURE
LACHIE Jones. How many first-year players are cult figures before they even play an AFL game?
The mullet hairdo, the moustache, the natural "Port Adelaide way" as an uncompromising defender and his AFL debut on his 19th birthday against the league champions Richmond at Adelaide Oval.
"I really did not expect the fame; I wouldn't call it fame yet when there are a lot of boys in front of me," Jones said of his start in the big league that included a much-wanted duel with Brownlow Medallist Dustin Martin.
"It was pretty overwhelming.
"You couldn't help but notice (the crowd reaction) when I ran on (from the interchange bench in the 10th minute of the first quarter). A bit of a roar and first touch, so it was a good night."
THE SPIRIT
CAPTAIN Tom Jonas certainly leads by example and with an impressive style of never giving up in any contest. His pre-season wish to win all 22 home-and-away games highlights his ambition.
THE PAIN
JUST read the injury list week by week during the first half of the campaign.
But Port Adelaide did declare at the start of the year that it was working with a deeper squad - and a squad mentality - while demanding every player develop a second role.
AND NEXT
IT could become complicated with hubs and quick-changing fixtures while the AFL negotiates with border closures with COVID outbreaks.
The highly anticipated games - that work to the test of being "great" - are:
GEELONG at Adelaide Oval on the restart, slated for Thursday, June 10.
SYDNEY at Adelaide Oval in round 13 as a test of contested, one-on-one football against an ambitious and pesky rival.
MELBOURNE at Adelaide Oval in round 17 as a finals preview - and a test against the league's best defence.
WESTERN BULLDOGS at the Docklands in the home-and-away season closer.
