MALCOLM Blight sat in the new Port Adelaide changerooms - adjacent the eastern wing that was his perch as a boyhood supporter - in March tutoring all on the influence of luck in football. Good and bad.
The Hall of Fame legend took note of how luck critically deserted Port Adelaide last year with untimely injuries to key players in every division - Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall in attack; Scott Lycett in ruck and Trent McKenzie in defence, in particular.
The man who declares luck is decided by "the footy gods" knows all too well - particularly this week when all the memories flood back of Showdowns - that there is no greater influence on a premiership race than injuries.
The Sherrin bounces with crazy turns that inspire Dennis Cometti to think of Pythagoras while Angus Monfries celebrates the most unlikely final quarter goal in the last Showdown at Football Park in 2013.
Umpires will, as Dixon has experienced to great frustration, see and don't see critical moments that decide a contest.
And weather - be it the turn in a wind direction; rain that once seemed obligatory in Port Adelaide home games or just the dew that falls heavily during an Adelaide winter - can make the toss of the coin for choice of ends more decisive.
But injuries - be it by bad luck or bad management - repeatedly and constantly shape a result in Australian football ... and the mentality of a supporter base, a betting market and the build-up to the first Showdown with a stand-alone timeslot since the 2005 derby semi-final at Football Park.
Blight built an AFL premiership from a heavy injury list - and defeat in Showdown I in 1997 when he carried a novice ruckman - with the footy gods smiling on his team during the second half of the grand against St Kilda. A long-running and still unfulfilled St Kilda fantasy was sunk by Blight's men missing just one of 15 shots on goal and scoring nine goals in succession.
And there is Port Adelaide of 2004.
It lost its captain and lead ruckman Matthew Primus to a season-ending knee injury in the round-three game against Hawthorn. Think now of Ivan Soldo, but without the "season-ending" thought.
There was no return of midfielder Josh Francou, who left the 2004 pre-season needing a reconstruction of his "good knee" after being sidelined in round two, 2003 when his other knee tangled with the legs of Brisbane captain Michael Voss.
And Josh Carr was the defining absence by injury from the first Showdown in 2004. Think now of Aliir Aliir ... or Sam Powell-Pepper, although with SPP this time it is a season-ending thought.
No Primus, no Francou, defender Michael Wilson enduring two battered shoulders and ruckman-forward Brendon Lade managing a back complaint all the way to the grand final against Brisbane and playing his critical role to breakthrough 2004 AFL flag.
No Soldo, no Powell-Pepper, no Aliir ... and it starts to appear as a continuation of the bad luck that beset Port Adelaide at the end of last season with Dixon, Marshall, Lycett and McKenzie. Or is a repeat of the challenge that was staring at Port Adelaide at the start of 2004? Showdown LV on Thursday night is more a test of Port Adelaide's depth chart and squad mentality than a sequel of Blight's footy gods taking issue with anyone at Alberton. The opportunities open for Jeremy Finlayson, Jackson Mead and Ryan Burton.
The more challenging debate for the game's guardians is how much they want luck by injuries to decide matches and the AFL premiership race.
Essendon coach - and former AFL football chief - Brad Scott put back on the agenda the need to rethink how the interchange bench is formed in elite Australian football.
The need for greater coverage for players lost to concussion protocols recently moved the league to extend the bench to five, albeit with the fifth interchange player as a substitute who can be activated for tactical or medical reasons.
"We brought back the rule everyone hated," says Scott of the 23rd man as the substitute, who is recorded to have played an AFL game even if he has not taken to the field.
The push for six interchange players will become inevitable as the need for more caution with concussion cases grows. There is a cap on interchange rotations, so six on the bench will not be a definitive tactical edge for coaches as it was decades ago with four reserves and no limit to rotations.
Injuries will be inevitable in a game of combat and collision. As Blight said at Alberton, you need luck in this game. And sometimes you can make your own by holding an attitude of resilience rather than resignation on the injury count.
