"PORT ADELAIDE to win by plenty," is the word on the streets.
Never before in 48 Showdowns have the bookmakers put such a gap on their boards between the derby rivals.
It is not the script that traditionally precedes a Port Adelaide-Adelaide clash: "Form counts for nothing in the Showdown." Or: "Ignore the AFL premiership table ... it's a Showdown."
"Favouritism does not mean a thing," says Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley who speaks from the experience of 15 Showdowns, second only to Mark Williams (23 derbies) at Port Adelaide.
Form - or more to the point, form correction - is quite significant with this Showdown. The poor performances at last starts for both derby rivals - Port Adelaide losing by 49 points to fellow top-four contender Brisbane at the Gabba and Adelaide collapsing to a 67-point defeat at home to Greater Western Sydney last Saturday - demands strong responses and massive form reversal in contested football numbers from both teams.
Showdowns with both teams coming off defeats have unfolded just three times in the past decade - with Port Adelaide answering the doubters with victory in 2019 (after losing at home to the Western Bulldogs during an inconsistent run of wins followed by losses) and in 2011 (to snap a three-game losing streak at the start of the season). Adelaide did it once, after the 103-point defeat to St Kilda that ended Neil Craig's coaching tenure at West Lakes.
It is tough to ignore the premiership table after seven home-and-away rounds. Port Adelaide is third with a 5-2 win-loss record. Adelaide is 13th, 3-4. Percentage also tells a story - Port Adelaide, 120.2 (average winning margin of 38 points); Adelaide is 92.1 (21 points).
The past four games between the clubs make it difficult to challenge the bookmakers. Port Adelaide won the second derby of 2019 by 57 points; the only Showdown of last season by a club record 75 points; and the two trial derbies of this season by 52 points at Alberton Oval and by 71 points at Noarlunga during the lone AFL Community Series game when Port Adelaide took a record 182 marks.
And there is the reality of the two clubs being in different lanes on the road to the AFL premiership.
Port Adelaide is strongly favoured to reclaim the lead (25-24) on the Showdown ledger by having a deeper-running midfield that regains former captain Travis Boak while Adelaide has its skipper Rory Sloane resume after a month on the sidelines with an eye injury.
Boak, Ollie Wines, Scott Lycett, Karl Amon, Dan Houston (who might return to defence), Sam Powell-Pepper, Willem Drew, Robbie Gray, Connor Rozee ...
Port Adelaide is more favoured by the greater potency of its attack.
All-Australian Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, Mitch Georgiades, Orazio Fantasia, Steven Motlop, Gray, Rozee ... who all have to deal with the lack of efficiency and productivity (just six goals from 58 inside-50s) against Brisbane.
Port Adelaide's red-hot favouritism in the lead-up to Showdown LXIX is heavily based on the scouting notes finding at Alberton a squad that runs deeper, has greater flexibility and more class than the rebuilding Adelaide player list.
"It will take 18 of us on the ground (and not just the midfield crew); whether we win the midfield battle or not we must make sure we finish off our work and we have to defend well," said Port Adelaide midfield coach Jarrad Schofield. "We (as a midfield) are just one part of three areas on the ground that we have to get right.
"When we are playing our best football, we are all connected - defence, offence and in contest."
One of the biggest notes taken by Adelaide during the two pre-seasons derbies was the power of Sydney recruit Aliir Aliir with his intercept marking in defence.
Adelaide forwards coach James Rahilly says: "We will definitely have a plan for Aliir Aliir. He was very crucial in those two (pre-season) games. We definitely will have a plan and we have a few guys who can roll through that and manage that. He is a very important intercept player - and they start off a lot of their rebound with him."
For all the pragmatic thoughts on how Showdown XLIX will play out on Saturday evening, there is the emotional thought that this intense rivalry defies logic, form, betting odds and the premiership table.
But Port Adelaide captain Tom Jonas is wary of putting emotions ahead of process to victory.
"When you go through what it takes to win a Showdown, it is generally contested footy," said Jonas. "Obviously, there is some more specific messaging about the way the Crows play.
"There is a certain level of emotion, but you can't get completely drawn into that. You have to maintain structure; and play the way we have been playing for near on 18 months now."
THE BIRD SEED
(the small details that count)
Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
When: Saturday, May 8, 2021
Time: 7.10pm
Last time: Port Adelaide 17.8 (110) d Adelaide 5.5 (35) at Adelaide Oval, round 2, June 13 last year.
Overall: Port Adelaide 24, Adelaide 24.
Past five games: From the most recent, W W L L W
Scoring averages: Port Adelaide 88, Adelaide 92.
Tightest margin: Three points, twice (Adelaide wins in Showdowns 39 and 45).
Biggest margin: Port Adelaide by 75 points in Showdown 48; Adelaide by 84 points in Showdown 43.
By the venue: Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide 5, Adelaide 8; Football Park, Port Adelaide 19, Adelaide 16.
