TWO columns on the premiership table are expected to decide fourth spot this home-and-away season and the double-chance for the first week of the top-eight finals - wins and percentage.
At the start of round 16, with eight games to play (all staying to plan in these uncertain times), 1.6 percentage points separated fourth-ranked Port Adelaide (122.2) and fifth-placed Geelong (120.6).
Geelong on Friday night - with a 41-point win against Essendon at home at Kardinia Park - put itself in front by wins (11) and percentage (123.4, 1.2 points in advantage).
It is Port Adelaide's turn now.
The crystal ball gazers working the AFL data suggest this narrow yo-yo contest within the grander 18-team race will go to the last weekend of the home-and-away season - and be decided by percentage.
Collecting percentage from 17th-ranked Hawthorn has not been an easy task this season. And this weekend, regardless of the heavy favouritism with Port Adelaide, it will be even more difficult considering the obligations the Hawthorn players carry to honour premiership hero Shaun Burgoyne in his 400th AFL game.
Keeping the win column on par with Geelong will be challenging enough for Port Adelaide at the Docklands on Saturday night based on the emotions this match stirs, even internally considering Burgoyne's start at Alberton in the junior SANFL ranks.
"Shaun is part of Hawthorn's build-up ... ," said Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley who wants his team cast as the "party pooper" in the Silk400 celebrations.
"It can't be part of our (preparation) - we need to go out to play the game we need to play."
Port Adelaide has proven with its perfect record against bottom-10 teams this season that it is more reliable in these matches that get dubbed as "danger games". The 10-point win against Sydney at Adelaide Oval underlined the less-brittle Port Adelaide has a stronger work ethic when games demand persistence and resistance.
This match will - beyond the Burgoyne factor - give both Port Adelaide and Hawthorn great insight on the development of their player lists.
There will be more to note of how opportunity - amid injuries to Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma - has allowed Miles Bergman and Willem Drew to flourish. While the seasoned Travis Boak and vice-captain Ollie Wines work against the lauded Hawthorn pair of Tom Mitchell and Jaegar O'Meara, there will be more moments for Connor Rozee, Bergman, Drew and Karl Amon to create sorties to Port Adelaide's triple options of go-to forwards Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall and Mitch Georgiades.
"There is no doubt that sometimes those (injury setbacks) forced upon you gives you an added bonus," Hinkley said. "There is no doubt about that.
"A number of players, those two (Bergman and Drew) in particular, have come in and established themselves in the side and look like really strong players.
"Drew (2016 AFL national draft, No. 33) we always thought was a genuine AFL player. He just didn't have luck with his body and Miles (2019 AFL national draft, No. 14) last year had a challenging first year with the COVID issues but we were always comfortable he had a lot of ability. We just needed to give him opportunities."
Port Adelaide returns to the cover and hard deck of the Melbourne Docklands for just the second time in 23 months (after being locked out in Season 2020 by the pandemic). The first run under the roof ended in a 52-point win against North Melbourne in the season-opener and improved Port Adelaide's record at the 21-year-old venue to 22-33.
Club champion Darcy Byrne-Jones will play his 10th AFL game at the Docklands where Port Adelaide first and last played Hawthorn in round 21, 2015 - for a 22-point win. He has noted the peculiar ways of the air-conditioned arena that cannot be rainproof while its roof must be kept open to satisfy COVID protocols.
"It is an interesting stadium," Byrne-Jones said. "It has a different feel to many other stadiums, obviously with the roof.
"It is different. We have played there a few times a year and we feel we can play our best footy there. And hopefully we do on the weekend."
For all that has been lost with Hawthorn in its fall from league pacesetter to the league's 17th ranking there is still premiership coach Alastair Clarkson's emphasis on disposal efficiency and minimising turnovers while punishing opposition teams for their mistakes. The telling statistic of Hawthorn's season is that in 14 games it has had 103 fewer kicks than its match opponents - and 237 more handballs (only the Western Bulldogs are more manic about handball with 566 more hand passes than its game-day opponents).
"Clarko has talked about how they went to work (during the mid-season break) on their defensive stuff - and they have made some massive improvement," Hinkley said of the refitted Hawthorn playbook. "You have to acknowledge their form (since the break) has been first class. They are in as good form as anyone in the competition since the bye. So we know we have our work cut out.
"There is so much personnel change (to the premiership-challenging Hawthorn teams under Clarkson). They are building again - and building a young side with Clarko embracing the opportunity to continue to build the team.
"It appears to me he is starting from really sound foundations with strong defence and an opportunity to use the ball when they come without too much risk. Alastair Clarkson is a genius at what he does, so I know they are improving each week."
Byrne-Jones is confident in the remedial work he and his Port Adelaide teammates have done to avert being cut on turnovers by handball chains.
"It is something we are always mindful of," Byrne-Jones said. "The turnovers you can't defend - the ones coming out of the back 50 and through the middle of the ground are really hard to defend. So that is something we always work on and we understand there is always going to be mistakes in a game of footy.
“As a defensive group we are trying to mitigate them as much as possible to give the guys up the field the best chance to attack and score."
And every score will count in the percentage column. Prepare for two months of a "nail-biting" watch of that live ladder at the bottom of the screen.
BIRD SEED
(the little stuff that counts most)
Where: Marvel Stadium, Docklands in Melbourne
When: Saturday, July 3, 2021
Time: 7.10pm (SA time)
Last time: Port Adelaide 9.14 (68) d Hawthorn 9.4 (58) at Adelaide Oval in round 13, August 22 last year
Overall: Port Adelaide 20, Hawthorn 16
Past five games (most recent first): W L L W L
Scoring average: Port Adelaide 95, Hawthorn 90
Tightest winning margin - Port Adelaide by four points (84-80) at the MCG, in round 18, August 3, 2003; Hawthorn by three points twice, (64-61) at York Park, Launceston, in round 11, June 2, 2018; (97-94) at the MCG in the preliminary final, September 20, 2014.
Biggest winning margin - Port Adelaide by 117 points (188-71) at Football Park, in round 13, June 17, 2005; Hawthorn by 165 points (197-32) at the MCG, round 21, August 13, 2011.
By venues - Adelaide Oval (4-1), Football Park (8-6), MCG (4-4), Docklands (1-0), Waverley Park (1-1), York Park (2-4).
By States - South Australia (12-7), Victoria (6-5), Tasmania (2-4).
