EXPECTATION. Opportunity. Reality.

Rarely are these three in synch for any team during an AFL premiership campaign.

For Port Adelaide, all three themes have never been perfectly aligned during this imperfect 2023 season. Each has bounced from extreme to extreme, as every television executive savours with the unscripted drama of sport.

A fortnight ago, Port Adelaide was - after falling by two points to AFL leader Collingwood at Adelaide Oval in the so-called "game of the season" - tagged (perhaps too richly) as the genuine challenger to Collingwood's mantle as premiership favourite.

Today, Port Adelaide is in a four-game losing streak, slipping out of top-two contention and fighting more fires than the CFS fears on a hot, windy day in January amid searing drought.

EXPECTATION has been its own roller coaster ride all year. The unconvincing pre-season was followed by a 1-2 opening to the home-and-away season with flashbacks to the 0-5 that wrecked the 2022 campaign. Then there was the club's AFL record winning streak of 13 (lucky for some). From untenable to unbeatable. And now there is a four-game losing run that has worked to erratic extremes - epic contests with the AFL premier Geelong and would-be champion at Collingwood; no contests, so to speak, with Carlton and in Showdown LIV.

Sometimes it pays to stand back. At the start of the season the general consensus was Port Adelaide would rebound from the disappointment of 2022 to be a top-eight contender this year - more so for a finals seeding in the 5-8 category rather than the plush sets reserved for the top four. Then there was that bad start ...

OPPORTUNITY changed this script across 13 weeks. The "at-best" expectation of a home elimination final from fifth or sixth spot became a more enticing home qualifying final from the second perch in the top eight.

Those 13 consecutive wins - added to the season-opening triumph that ended a losing streak with Brisbane - ensured Port Adelaide, with at least 14 victories, made it past the threshold for a top-eight berth in this longest-ever AFL qualifying series. The opportunity to play finals for the third time in four seasons has been taken - and locked away.

The opportunity to have a third top-two finish (after the minor premiership in 2020 and second ranking to eventual premier Melbourne in 2021) has slipped for now but it is not lost entirely. Injuries, ill health and suspensions from the AFL judiciary are as inevitable as death and taxes in real life ... and sometimes more aligned to bad luck than poor management. Yet again, here is the reminder that a squad wins the premiership (even if only teams get the gold medals).

REALITY is ... Port Adelaide today has fallen to fourth with a 14-6 win-loss record that equates to the work of second-ranked Melbourne and third-placed Brisbane. Percentage has sorted the pecking order (even though Port Adelaide is unbeaten to Brisbane and Melbourne this season).

The indisputable is the upcoming fixture: Greater Western Sydney at Adelaide Oval in the seemingly well-labelled "twilight zone" of Sunday evening; followed by the road trip to Perth to play non-contender Fremantle in another Sunday twilight game; and the home-and-away closer with Richmond at Adelaide Oval.

"Anyone done the AFL ladder predictor?" Port Adelaide senior coach Ken Hinkley asked the shrinking media pack in his post-match at Adelaide Oval a fortnight ago - with the unspoken message being this AFL competition has many more twists and turns on its snakes-and-ladders road to September.

At best, Port Adelaide ranks in the top-four with a 17-6 win-loss count that defies early expectation from the pundits - and salvages the grand opportunity created by the 13-game winning streak.

At worst, Port Adelaide closes the home-and-away season with a seven-game losing streak, a 14-9 count and a home elimination final against (most probably) Carlton.

Most likely, Port Adelaide ranks fourth (behind Brisbane and Melbourne) by percentage on a 16-7 count and goes to the MCG to play minor premier Collingwood in a double-chance qualifying final. This would put to the test that expectation - declared externally a fortnight ago - that Port Adelaide is the main challenger to Collingwood's desires.

Long-range forecasts in Australian football are far from scientific. Yes, there are all those charts from Champion Data statistics - but these prophecies are all based on the past rather than, as meteorologists have with satellite images and pressure readings, any insight to the future.

How does Champion Data analysis deal with Jeremy Finlayson and Miles Bergman waking with illness on the morning of a critical away clash with the AFL premier?

More relevant is how the so-called "undermanned" Port Adelaide side presented and performed at the hoodoo venue of Kardinia Park on Saturday night. The 12-point loss reaffirmed the football program at Alberton is solid. A weaker program would have crumbled after a major derby loss and a week of off-field drama that consumed many.

The future is promising for all that can be expected across the next decade while the midfield engine turns to the spirit of Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis.

Turning that promise to more tangible outcomes is the never-ending challenge of list management.

There was no victory, no premiership points - and no desire to follow the English cricketers in hugging "moral victories" by labelling the loss as "gallant". A valiant team has never won a premiership.

There are many questions - some of Port Adelaide's making such as faltering goalkicking accuracy, particularly with conversion on set shots.

And when a senior coach invites the media pack in his press conference to broadcast their observations of the officiating in a match - because he cannot speak freely without retribution from AFL headquarters - there is more to address than Port Adelaide's sloppy tackling methods.

Expectation remains high at a club that is chasing greatness rather than the comfort of being a good, gallant team in a tough 18-team race to glory.

Opportunity is still grand with a top-two finish still within the team's destiny.

Reality will emerge in September. Port Adelaide is playing finals. This mission statement is a confirmed reality.

ON REVIEW: Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.

One of the constant gripes of the "influencers" in the muesli that is media today is: AFL footballers, coaches and administrators are scripted, speak with spin and generally seek to avoid a headline.

And in drawing very little breath, these commentators also get excited when a player, coach or administrator goes "off script" to be "open, honest, forthright". Their work as "content creators" is done for them.

In the fall-out of anyone speaking "honestly" there is the backlash from the same scriveners who lament when the pre-game speak becomes anything but authentic.
Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.

Port Adelaide defender Ryan Burton - a Port Adelaide supporter before his teenage years - stoked the build-up to Showdown LIV by saying (after being prompted) on his regular weekly radio spot with SEN: "I hate the (Adelaide) football club. I think we all do."

The "honest" remark - that would be made of all the great sporting rivalries around the world and demanded by the scribblers during a Showdown - echoed through the build-up to the Saturday night derby and even after the one-sided result.

Burton was - understandably and unashamedly - unrepentant a week later. He stood by the true emotions he has carried for more than two decades saying: "I really only shared my opinion on the club. I didn't really say too much."

It certainly was not "manufactured" - as the critics claim - from the old playbook Don King wrote for all his boxing bouts at Atlantic City, Madison Square Garden and Las Vegas.
"We have said it in the past," added Burton to underline the feeling across West Lakes Boulevard is long standing. "I would not have thought it would build up too much of a storm.

"I must have offended a few people. I might refrain from saying it next time."

Yes, next time the "manufactured" response should be: "We really enjoy having them as neighbours down the road. We enjoy every game we play against them. It will be another good one on Saturday night. Can't wait ..." Let's hope we pack out the ground." Hold the back page! Stop the presses.

Burton's explanation of his pre-game remark continued with: "I thought it was just obvious everyone at the football club has that dislike for the (other) team in town."

Indeed it is as obvious as what is said in other classic rivalries such as Celtic v Rangers in Glasgow, West Ham United-Tottenham, Manchester City-Manchester United, Liverpool-Everton and Chelsea-Arsenal in the English Premier League and AC Milan v Inter Milan in Italian football. Or the grand rivalries between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox in baseball and the lauded Boston Celtics-Los Angeles Lakers grudge that built the NBA.

These intense and much-valued sporting rivalries are built on two teams, two supporter bases not liking each other.

"It is just natural in the build-up to say those comments," added Burton. "I have said it in the past.

"All we need to do it back it up (on the field) if we do say it. Last year we did - and won convincingly. It works in our favour sometimes and not at other times.

"We are not going to stop saying these things or stop sharing our opinions. We need to play better every time we do it."

In April or May next year - in the build-up to Showdown LV - someone will again ask of the essence of the rivalry that Hall of Fame legend Malcolm Blight describes as the best in Australian football. It is the best because of the clear-cut feeling the Port Adelaide Football Club generates from a long-standing "them against us" concept that pre-dates AFL football in South Australia.

So, to satisfy the new-age critics in a woke era the build-up to the derby should perhaps start with the opposing derby captains handing flowers to each other. Will this appease those who still cannot understand how genuine sporting rivalries are built on emotion?

Liverpool mastermind Bill Shankly made an art of stoking the rivalry with his neighbours at Everton with lines such as: "If Everton were playing at the bottom of the garden, I'd pull the curtains" and "When I've nothing better to do, I look down the league table to see how Everton are getting on."

ON (P)REVIEW: And then there were three ...

From Port Adelaide's breakthrough 2004 AFL premiership side, three of the 21 grand final heroes have graduated to senior coaching roles.

Damien Hardwick was first, taking charge at Richmond in 2010 - and winning his first battle against Port Adelaide (at Football Park) and finishing his tenure at the Victorian-based club with a 10-1-7 win-draw-loss record against his premiership club.

Then it was Stuart Dew at the expansion franchise at Gold Coast from 2018, facing Port Adelaide six times - the first time in Shanghai for a 40-point loss that was followed by fives losses in Australia on the Gold Coast or at Adelaide Oval.

And now the list is to gain Adam Kingsley from the other recent expansion franchise north of the Murray at Greater Western Sydney. The 1998 John Cahill Medallist returns to Adelaide on Sunday for his first encounter against Port Adelaide as a senior coach after many duels as a valued assistant at St Kilda and Richmond ... and after starting his coaching apprenticeship at Port Adelaide.