LET'S do the maths to put Saturday afternoon's round 20 clash with Collingwood at the MCG in perspective.

Port Adelaide is ranked 11th. It has an 8-10 win-loss record - and, by the mathematics, must succeed in all four of its remaining home-and-away games to pass the 12-win threshold that generally achieves a top-eight finals berth.

And there are three teams to leapfrog into the upper echelon. Port Adelaide's destiny is in many hands today:

WESTERN BULLDOGS (eighth, 10-8, 111.9 per cent): Geelong, Fremantle, Greater Western Sydney and Hawthorn.

ST KILDA (ninth, 10-8, 103.6): Hawthorn, Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney.

RICHMOND (10th, 9-1-9, 114.5): Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon.

There is a case to be made that the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Richmond might find no more than two wins in the next month ... and this would leave the door truly open for Port Adelaide.

But it is one hurdle at a time - and Collingwood, a surprise contender for a top-four finish, is one of the most-testing challenges in the game today. It certainly is the team that will play to the final siren with Collingwood having extended its winning streak to nine by claiming victory in eight games this season by two goals or less.

This is Port Adelaide's first encounter with Collingwood in any football since July 23 last year - and much has changed on both fronts in the following 12 months.

Collingwood has a new coach, Craig McRae who has recast the playbook to emphasise a more attacking (and more attractive) game.

Port Adelaide has its own new ways, some built out of necessity for change after the 0-5 start - and the lack of a dedicated ruckman after Scott Lycett was lost to a shoulder injury in round four.

"While we are still a mathematical chance, we will be going out there wanting to beat Collingwood this week. What happens outside of that (with fellow contenders Richmond, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs) is out of our control. We just control what we can. If that door to the eight stays ajar - I know the odds are against us - while we are living and breathing, we will keep going for the win.

"Regardless of where we end up in a week, a fortnight or three weeks, every week we go out there wanting to win."

Port Adelaide captain and defender Tom Jonas

NEW THEME

IN recent Port Adelaide-Collingwood games, those that had Nathan Buckley commanding Collingwod's agenda, the opposition's challenge was to find a way to endure and overcome a defensive vice. New Collingwood coach Craig McRae has not betrayed defence in his playbook, but he has put a new, positive emphasis on attack.

Collingwood has lifted its average score by more than two goals this season (to 85 points from 71 last year).

Collingwood opened the season breaking the 100-point barrier against Adelaide and St Kilda. Its highest score of the year is the 115 points against Gold Coast in round 7.

On defence, Collingwood this season concedes on average 80 points - and the 85-80 average scoreline does tell the story of a team that has worked (with wins) through seven of its past nine games being decided by two goals or less and the past four by five, seven, five and four points.

"Collingwood play attacking football. We are good defensively. Hopefully, that plays into our hand a little bit. They like to play really quick, take the game on - at a risk at times. If our defence is on, as it has been, we can cause some turnovers. Our main concern this year has been converting those inside-50 (opportunities created on rebound or turnovers). We need to score. We have to make the most of those opportunities with scores."

Port Adelaide midfielder Ollie Wines

NEW POWER

IT is remarkable how both Port Adelaide and Collingwood have coped while missing lead ruckmen Scott Lycett and Brodie Grundy, respectively. The great duel that dates back to the 2018 AFL grand final (when Lycett was with West Coast) will not resume this weekend. Lycett is overcoming his shoulder injury; Grundy is in the VFL, building form after being sidelined by a knee injury (the ruckman's curse of a knock to the posterior cruciate ligament).

Port Adelaide is sticking with the Jeremy Finlayson-Charlie Dixon combination, the key forwards revolutionising ruck work with their groundwork. And there is half-forward Sam Powell-Pepper to pinch-hit when needed.

Collingwood is working Mason Cox and Darcy Cameron.

"Charlie has been phenomenal - and paired with Jeremy they are a dynamic duo," says Port Adelaide captain Tom Jonas. "We might not win the hit-outs, but the damage they do when the ball hits the floor has proven to be a great combination for us. It is not traditional, but it is certainly the way the ruck game is working for us and we are very happy with that."

Finlayson has certainly shown his passion for ruck work. Dixon has shown his passion, full stop.

"You take a fair battering," says Port Adelaide midfielder Ollie Wines of the physical demands being asked of Dixon and Finlayson. "At the moment, Jeremy and Charlie are doing an enormous amount of work as forwards being asked to play in ruck. A huge amount of work.

"We are willing to sacrifice the hit-out in the air to gain that extra player at ground level."

And here Port Adelaide is finding that added man winning clearances is making a difference on the scoreboard. In the past two matches, Port Adelaide has outscored the league-leading Geelong and defending premier Melbourne at stoppages.

"Charlie, Jeremy - and Sam Powell-Pepper have been outstanding," says Port Adelaide midfield coach Brett Montgomery. "What we have done is, we have challenged the competition in a way of ruck play and outnumbering the opposition at the ground-level hunt for the ball. By circumstance (the shoulder injuries to Scott Lycett and Brynn Teakle), we have found something new."

Collingwood coaching director Brendon Bolton certainly has taken note that Port Adelaide has "some good on-ballers ... you only have to look at the likes of Travis Boak and Co."

"They have pushed two very good teams (Melbourne and Geelong) in the past fortnight," Bolton said. "We are under no illusions on how it is going to be a tough game. And then in defence Port Adelaide has Aliir Aliir with his intercept game. We are going to need to manage that Port Adelaide midfield (on the ground) - and do enough in the air this week because those are a couple of big strengths of Port Adelaide."

Collingwood ranks last of 18 for scores from centre-bounce clearances. But it is the league's best team for winning one-on-one contests.

"It's not real hard ... I keep telling the ruckmen that."

Port Adelaide vice-captain Ollie Wines on his appreciation of ruck work - after winning a centre ruck duel and the resulting clearance against Geelong at Adelaide Oval last week.

NEW ROLES

FIRST it was Connor Rozee who filled the need (amid the absence of both Robbie Gray and Orazio Fantasia) as the opportunist, small forward working around the goalsquare while Sam Powell-Pepper tormented defenders at the top of the 50-metre forward arc. But Port Adelaide could not afford to keep Rozee out of the midfield rotations, particularly the starting rotations.

(For the record - During the first five rounds, when Port Adelaide fell to a 0-5 win-loss count, Rozee had just two votes from the coaches in their annual association award. Since round 6, Rozee has polled 66 votes to rank seventh on the leaderboard).

Now, the question is: Can Port Adelaide afford to have fellow young midfielder Zak Butters recast as the small forward working next to key forward Todd Marshall - a tandem of a new generation?

"We have done that with Zak, Connor, Travis Boak ... even Ollie Wines. All our midfielders at some point have to spend time forward," answered Port Adelaide senior coach Ken Hinkley. "And Lachie Jones. Jed McEntee can step up. Powell-Pepper keeps growing. There is plenty of flexibility in our team.

"Zak has played as a forward pretty much most of the last six-to-seven weeks. We structure our game up slightly differently with where Zak may or may not appear to be at times. Zak can be damaging in both roles (midfielder and forward) ... as the others. They all can be damaging whether they are in the midfield or forward."

Prepare for a strong attacking theme from both midfields.

MILESTONE MEN

DESTINY has a strange way in Australian football. Two years after they shared their 150th AFL milestone, captain Tom Jonas and vice-captain Ollie Wines pass the 200-game marker in the same game.

Jonas returns to the MCG where he played his first game - as did Wines. The symmetry is extraordinary but completely aligned.

Jonas started in round 21, 2011 - against Hawthorn with a hefty defeat while Port Adelaide was deep into the so-called "dark chapter".

Wines began in round 1, 2013 - against Melbourne with a notable win that marked the start of a new era, on and off the field, for Port Adelaide.

"I will never forget. Go to the MCG, tag Luke Hodge, lose by 26 goals ... that is a baptism of fire. And fined my entire match fee for bumping into an umpire. That is a memorable welcome to the AFL."

Tom Jonas

TIME FLIES

THIS is the 25th anniversary of Port Adelaide's first season in AFL company. It began against Collingwood at the MCG on March 29, 1997.

This is the 52nd time Port Adelaide has played an AFL match on the MCG (where it had some historic moments as an SANFL-based club). The win-loss count is 22-28 with one draw.

The first two games at the G this season were ... well, symbols of Port Adelaide's season. The first - against Carlton on April 17 - ended in a three-point loss after a nine-goal second half almost wiped out a 49-point deficit at half-time. The second - against Richmond on June 9 - ended in a 12-point loss after the Power rallied late to claim a fourth quarter lead, but could not hold on in close contest.

Port Adelaide has won its past three against Collingwood - and seven of the past nine.

IF IT GETS TIGHT

COLLINGWOOD has won nine games in a row - and the past five by 11 points (against Greater Western Sydney), five (Gold Coast), seven (North Melbourne), five (Adelaide) and four (Essendon). Since round six, Collingwood has won eight games by 12 points or less (after losing three in a row by 13, 13 and seven points). No AFL team has been so fixed on the right side of luck since 1989.

Port Adelaide this season has won two games decided by a kick (the one-point win against St Kilda in Cairns and two-point triumph against Gold Coast at Adelaide Oval). But there is a long list of narrow defeats - of them: 11 points to Brisbane at the Gabba, four points to Adelaide in the Showdown, three points after giving Carlton a big start at the MCG, 12 points to Richmond at the MCG, eight points to Fremantle in Perth and 14 points to AFL premier Melbourne at Alice Springs and 12 points to league leader Geelong at Adelaide Oval in the past fortnight.

"Collingwood has been the opposite of us - they have been able to get over the line (in tight finishes)," Jonas said. "That comes from the way they attack the game. When the game is on the line, they become bolder and braver. They really take it on. You make your own luck. The way they play the game has certainly allowed that to manifest (with four consecutive wins by seven points or less in the past month).

"We need to keep playing out brand of footy - and do it for four quarter. We talk about the contests. We talk about executing our ball movement and skills goin forward - and maximising those opportunities. It will be an incredibly high-pressure game."

Port Adelaide captain Tom Jonas

FIXTURE NOTE

JUST saying ... Port Adelaide last hosted Collingwood at Adelaide Oval in round 21, 2017. Since then, the Port Adelaide-Collingwood matches have been played at the MCG (twice), the Docklands in west Melbourne (twice) and at the Gabba in 2020 with another game that was originally scheduled for the MCG in round 5 before the COVID pandemic temporarily shut down the AFL home-and-away series.

Port Adelaide has won three of these five games away from home.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"NO-ONE would have guessed that for the past seven weeks Jeremy Finlayson has been the No. 1 ruck in the competition. And when you dive deeper (into the statistics) he has spent 72 per cent of game time in ruck in that time. What this has done for Port Adelaide is significant.

"Since Jeremy Finlayson became Port Adelaide's No. 1 ruckman - with Charlie Dixon in support - in round 13, the numbers are - clearance differential has gone from No. 8 to 4; points from stoppage, from No. 16 to 3; and contested possession differential, from No. 13 to 5. So I am not writing Port Adelaide off as a finalist. They have outscored Geelong from stoppage.

"Finlayson and Dixon have given Port Adelaide a different look through the midfield. They are last for hit-outs, but it is amazing what they can do at ground level. They are getting it done. It is a point of difference they can continue to roll with."

Leigh Montagna, former St Kilda player and Fox Footy analyst

BIRD SEED

(the small stuff that matters most)

Where: MCG, Melbourne

When: Saturday, July 30, 2022

Time: 1.15pm (SA time)

Last time: Port Adelaide 14.13 (97) d Collingwood 10.9 (69) at the Docklands in Melbourne, round 19, July 23 last year

Overall: Port Adelaide 18, Collingwood 16

Past five games (most recent first): W W W L L

Scoring average: Port Adelaide 83, Collingwood 90

Tightest margin - Port Adelaide by one point (88-87) at the MCG, round 14, July 2, 1999; Collingwood by two points (89-87) at Football Park, round 20, August 18, 2006.

Biggest margin - Port Adelaide by 67 points (125-58) at the MCG, round 11, June 5, 2016; Collingwood by 138 points (159-21) at Football Park, round 20, August 6, 2011.

By venues: Adelaide Oval (2-0), Football Park (7-6), MCG (7-5), Docklands (1-5), Gabba (1-0).

By States: South Australia (9-6), Victoria (8-10), Queensland 1-0.

IT'S over. The tightrope under Port Adelaide's heavy walk to September's AFL finals has snapped.

Port Adelaide's six-point loss to the finals-bound Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday afternoon captured a season of being so close, but not close enough. Good, but not good enough. Good to be competitive, but not great to maintain the storyline of 2020 and 2021 when Port Adelaide was a top-four pacesetter.

Port Adelaide is now 8-11. It cannot with three home-and-away games to play reach the 12-win threshold to become a top-eight finalist in September.

And there is much more than the 0-5 start to the season to consider in review of a season that began with high expectation.

MG MVP | Vote for your best afield against the Magpies

The six-point loss to Collingwood adds to the list of near misses in close games, those decided by 14 points or less, particularly against this year's true top-eight contenders. That count in all tight games is now 2-7 against Port Adelaide. By contrast, Collingwood has put together a string of nine wins in matches decided by two goals or less ... and is to be rewarded with finals action.

In Port Adelaide's battles with top-eight candidates this season, the wins against Sydney (23 points), St Kilda (one point) and Western Bulldogs (17) are heavily outweighed by the losses to Brisbane (11 points), Melbourne (32 and 14), Carlton (three), Richmond (12), Fremantle (eight), Geelong (35 and 12) and now Collingwood (six).

There is again another storyline of a Port Adelaide team that did not give up against Collingwood, even after staring at a 24-point deficit in the first minute of the last term.

Five-game defender Jase Burgoyne's first goal in AFL football - from a set shot at the top of the 50-metre arc - had Port Adelaide within six points with 61 seconds to play. Even after winning the following centre clearance, Port Adelaide could not complete the forward sortie with any score. The ball was lost 30 metres from goal. So was the game. And gone is the fight to stay in the finals race.

In all, this sums up Port Adelaide in Season 2022.

Willing, competitive, resilient ... but falling short, wasteful and below par when measured against the teams that will continue the race to settling the final eight during the next three weeks and then the battle for the AFL premiership during September.

And the questions of what Port Adelaide lacks to go from good to great will need to focus on what would allow Port Adelaide to score more.

The 12.10 (82) posted against Collingwood on Saturday was above the season average of 74, but it still was not enough.

The 22 scores came from 23 shots and 52 inside-50 entries. A 44 per cent efficiency rate inside-50 emphasises how much more Port Adelaide could - and needs - to find to match the AFL's true pacesetters.

The game was true to all that can be expected when so much is on the line. It was tough. It was not pretty. It was testing of many players on both line-ups. And it did not end with the celebration Port Adelaide wanted for captain Tom Jonas and Brownlow Medallist Ollie Wines in their 200th AFL games.

It certainly did not end with what Jonas and Wines wanted for their team and their club more so than themselves.

Port Adelaide's opening was historic - and built on extraordinary (but short-lived) efficiency inside-50 and intense pressure on the Collingwood players seeking to rebound from their defensive 50-metre arc.

Travis Boak entered the history books with the opening goal from the first kick of the match - scored before there was an opening bounce. The former Port Adelaide captain was awarded a free kick inside the 50-metre arc for interference from Collingwood half-back Nick Daicos.

After Collingwood won the territory game early with nine of the first 10 inside-50 sorties, Port Adelaide dominated the scoreboard with a momentum run of five unanswered goals from five players who delivered a 24-point lead deep into time-on while testing (and breaking) the discipline of the Collingwood players.

The best play in this five-goal run was started by Zak Butters not giving up on winning an aerial ball destined for the half-back boundary line in the 14th minute. Butters' centring pass to Ollie Wines opened a forward rush finished by Todd Marshall scoring Port Adelaide's third goal from a set shot.

The 12-point lead at quarter-time followed Port Adelaide dominating the possession despite being overwhelmed at clearances (4-14). But the manic pressure on the Collingwood players (as measured in part by the 13 tackles for the term that tumbled Collingwood into a poor disposal efficiency of 54 per cent) created opportunities that Port Adelaide nailed with six goals and eight scores from 12 inside-50 entries.

Port Adelaide's second term took the script to the other extreme while the game worked into a strong one-on-one contest with extra numbers at stoppages rather than in defence. This time there was no goal - just four behinds from 13 inside-50s, one more than in the first term. And Collingwood had its own unanswered five-goal run from time-on in the first term to a five-point lead at half-time.

Port Adelaide can score quickly, as it proved in the first term.

Port Adelaide also can go into long droughts, as has proven so costly during the season.

The side’s defensive match-ups - which began with recalled defender Trent McKenzie marking Collingwood last-kick hero Jamie Elliott - were tested during the second term when All-Australian defender Darcy Byrne-Jones rolled his right ankle while chasing Collingwood novice forward Ash Johnson. While midfielder Willem Drew waited on the medical substitute's seat, the Port Adelaide deputy vice-captain proved he was capable of returning to the field to join the fast-changing match-ups in the Collingwood forward 50.

All-Australian Aliir Aliir, the tallest player in the Port Adelaide defence at 194cm, took on the challenge of standing 211cm American-born convert Mason Cox when he was not working as a ruckman.

McKenzie, who replaced Tom Clurey in the back seven, was dealing with Elliott and the young man of the headlines, Jack Ginnivan who had three first-half goals. There was no encore from Ginnivan during the second half when Elliott and Will Hoskin-Elliott took over the challenge of finishing Collingwood's high-energy forward plays that amounted to a game-high 55 inside-50s (three more than Port Adelaide).

Collingwood's pre-game plan to avoid an aerial game in the Port Adelaide defensive half emerged in the second term when Collingwood preferred to run the ball - rather than "bomb" kicks - to its forwards. Collingwood troubled the statisticians with just eight contested marks - and nine bounces. Just as coaching director Brendon Bolton had declared during the week, Collingwood would work the ground rather than the air.

The numbers at half-time highlighted the contrast between the two teams (and defied the expectation of an "attractive" game with free-flowing attacking themes). Collingwood's strength was at the stoppages with a clear advantage at centre clearances. Port Adelaide was dominating outside the stoppages with a significant +53 count in uncontested possessions. The busiest player using his speed to work in hard-to-find space was Port Adelaide midfielder Connor Rozee who was the first on either side to reach 20 possessions.

The differing themes delivered very little difference on inside-50 opportunities - 29-25 in Collingwood's favour and 12 scores for each team (Collingwood's 7.5 and Port Adelaide's 6.6).

The second half began with the ultimate definition of pressure in Australian football with every mistake carrying a heavy cost. This included key forward Mitch Georgiades missing a set shot in the 16th minute of the third term after earning a free kick with a holding-the-ball tackle, adding to his season-long tale of woe with goalkicking yips.

The game had a role reversal with Port Adelaide winning at the contests - and Collingwood dominating on intercepts. The Champion Data statisticians finished the game acknowledging Port Adelaide won the clearances (44-36) and the usually trusty barometer of contested ball, 151-136. But Port Adelaide also won the turnover count, 82-76. Mistakes inevitably carry a bigger cost in tight matches.

There is no surprise that such intense football presented a game with scoring dominated by opportunities from turnovers.

Collingwood's preference to run at the Port Adelaide defence and scramble at every half-chance did become the home team's most-effective way to score - with four goals during the third term. Port Adelaide's two goals, the first from Butters in the opening minute and second from Sam Powell-Pepper's snap in the last 108 seconds, kept the margin at a manageable 17 points that became 23 with Elliott's ground kick after Collingwood won the first centre clearance of the last quarter.

Port Adelaide's tale of missed chances was most costly in the middle of the last term after Butters scored his second goal of the match with 12:08 to play to have the margin at 12 points. But Butters missed a set shot at 48 metres (for a behind) less than a minute later - and key forward Todd Marshall missed everything from 38 metres and on the boundary in the next forward run with 10:18 to play.

From three hard-earned inside-50 entries Port Adelaide scored just 1.1 - and Collingwood on the first rebound responded with its 13th goal, this one through a set shot from mid-season draftee Josh Carmichael to get the margin to 17 points.

There was the late charge with goals from Georgiades and Burgoyne. But again, Port Adelaide fell short - and the real purpose of any AFL season at Alberton ends sooner than expected.

Port Adelaide returns to Adelaide Oval for Saturday Night Football against Richmond. The match will define the final eight, but without Port Adelaide's presence. There is still the chance to square the win-loss ledger at 11-11 for the season with wins against Richmond, Essendon and Adelaide.

But the race to September is done.

COLLINGWOOD v PORT ADELAIDE

PORT ADELAIDE      6.2       6.6     8.9      12.10 (82)

COLLINGWOOD        4.3       7.5    11.8      13.10 (88)

BEST - Port Adelaide: Rozee, Boak, Wines, Butters, Finlayson, Powell-Pepper.

SCORERS - Port Adelaide: Boak, Butters, Powell-Pepper 2, Amon, Dixon, Finlayson, Georgaides, Marshall, Burgoyne.  

INJURY - nil

MEDICAL SUBSTITUTE: Willem Drew (not activated).

CROWD: 40,716 at the MCG.

NEXT: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, 7.10pm Saturday, August 6